a member of the European Union since 2004

Who is on the list after the Hungary Development under international infusion of this country, a member of the European Union since 2004, may not be unique if one considers that disability that he has accumulated in recent years are shared by many of its neighbors. Almost all emerging countries have experienced in the wake of the financial crisis, a virtually identical scenario caused by a massive Divestment movement and the rise of what experts call "risk aversion": fall of stock markets, currencies more or less steep dive, and liquidity crisis. The countries that have important mattress of currency as well as sound public finances are hard to the tornado. But where macroeconomic imbalances are marked, the financial crisis can quickly push States in bankruptcy or in any case to the default. However the Romania, the Bulgaria and the Baltic countries share the same structural imbalances: a deficit of current account (up to 22 of GDP in Latvia), high external debt (76 of GDP in Bulgaria, 123 in Latvia), which sometimes important to repay short term (more than 30 for the Estonia, the Latvia, and the Bulgaria) and finallya high proportion of foreign currency borrowings which exposes them to risks of change.

"In the current context, their vulnerability comes from the need to finance huge deficits of the current balance and debt in foreign currency", said Juan Carlos Rodado, an economist at Natixis. In addition, as almost everywhere in Central Europe and the East, the banking network is mostly or completely, as in Estonia in the hands of Western banks, the latter may be forced to repatriate their funds. They are already starting to curb credit. According to Patrick Artus, of Natixis, the situation of the Romania is particularly critical as outflows of capital may, if they are increased, emptying the reserves of the country and trigger a payment default. A few days ago, the rating agency Standard and Poor's has lowered the debt-to-long term of the Romania, reflecting "the growing risks on the real economy" of the country as "an increase in debt private" and "dependence on external financing" more and more uncertain. The Romania is "close dialogue" with the IMF, even if there is no ongoing discussion on financial assistance.

Sufficient threat

Standard and Poor's also lowered the notes of the Latvia and the Lithuania, where the situation is double of the collapse of the real estate market. With regard to the first, experts suggest needs bail out one or more banks and the risk of capital flight resulting in a balance of payments crisis. The second should see its "external economic vulnerability" grow with the weight of its debt and its public deficits.

"The Baltic countries will likely face in the best cases considerable cuts in public spending and a production below the potential for several years, until they have paid their debts and regained their competitiveness," says Juan Carlos Rodado. Yesterday it was the turn of the Bulgaria to reap a bad note by the rating agency on the ground that its economy "overheating" was the risk of a coup of brake to external funding flows.

The threat is enough to worry about European governments who developed the subject in the agenda of the meeting of Finance Ministers Monday and next Tuesday, in Brussels.